Monday, January 12, 2009

A Statistical Look at Eagles in NFC Championships


Here we go again.

This week, the Eagles will take the on the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC Championship, there 5th trip in 8 years. On paper, it is a very impressive accomplishment, and in alot of ways it is. But ask the fans, and they'll tell you it has brought them mostly heart break.

There was the Ronde Barber interception. McNabb watching the Rams celebrate. The late hit on McNabb agaisnt Carolina. The Joe Jurevicious catch. Footballs bouncing off the Eagles receivers into Panthers. Marshall Faulk running all over us. Andy Reid in a hawaiian shirt- 3 years in a row. 

These are the memories that come along with "NFC Championship Game" in Philadelphia. Sure, we beat the Falcons the last year, but Eagles fans were already on the way to Jacksonville before the game started. All week, on ESPN, Pardon the Interuption and Around the Horn, you will hear about the Eagles futility in the past Championship games. But have they just not shown up in the Championship games, or just been a victim of bad luck at the wrong time- 3 years in a row. 

Lets take an in depth look at the past championship games, compared to Wild Card games and Divisional games. These numbers exclude this years playoffs, and only games that Donovan McNabb played in.

Points Scored:
Championship Game: 16
Non-Championship Game: 23

Points Allowed:
Championship Game: 20
Non-Championship Game: 12.5

Yards:
Championship Game: 307.5
Non-Championship Game: 338.5

Yards Allowed:
Championship Game: 293
Non-Championship Game: 297.5

Passing Plays:
Championship Game: 35.25
Non-Championship Game: 34.5

Running Plays:
Championship Game: 21.75
Non-Championship Game: 19.75

If you break down the numbers, you do not see that big of a difference. They ran the ball less, but when your losing, thats what tends to happen. They have let up almost the same amount of yards, but given up almost 8 more points. They have been able to get the same amount of yards, but have scored around 1 less touchdown. What can you make of these numbers?

To me, it shows that when it comes to the Championship game, its not that the Eagles choke. They don't not show up on 1 side of the ball, they don't really abandon the run, or decide to throw it 50 more times.  It really has just come down to a couple of different things. When the played the Rams, they were a young team, that just wasn't ready to go into St Louis and win that game. Any time you have to put in Koy Detmer, your not going to win, and thats whats happened agaisnt the Panthers. And the Bucs? Well, you can make excuses- McNabb coming back from injury, Blaine Bishop playing- but they did just lose that one.

Now, you could argue that they just havent performed well in any playoff game, but they have not performed way worse in the championship game then in any other playoff game, at least statistically.

Then again, that could all change Sunday. 

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