Oswalt Not The Answer For Phillies

The Phillies need help.

No one that has watched this team recently can disagree with that. With a record of 1-6 since the All Star break, the Phillies have fallen even further out of the playoff picture. They are 7 games behind the Atlanta Braves, and 4 games out of the wildcard picture.

With a line up that has arguably the most talent in the NL, it easy to look at this team and say the need is a pitcher. Maybe Rueben Amaro Jr realizes the mistake he made by trading Cliff Lee, and thinks that by acquiring another star pitcher, the season will be what it was supposed to be: another smooth run to October baseball.

While it can be debated what the main need for the this team is, and they certainly have a lot of holes for back to back NL champions, one thing is clear:

Roy Oswalt is not the answer for the Phillies.

Roy Oswalt by the numbers is not overly impressive. 1 All Star appearance in his career. His ERA has not been under 3 in 4 years. In the playoffs, his ERA was close to 4. He has not won double-digit games in the last 2 years, and has more loses then any other pitcher in the NL this season.

The win/lose numbers can be rationalized: the Houston Astros are a horrible team. But one number cannot be: 39 million.

That is the amount of money the Phillies will have to pay Oswalt over the next 3 seasons (its assumed Oswalt will force any team he is traded to pick up his option for 2011-2012.) When you compare Oswalt’s (3.16) ERA to players already on the Phillies roster, such as Cole Hamels (3.63) or Jamie Moyer (4.84), it becomes even clearer that Oswalt is not the option. Hamel’s ERA is under 2 in his last 4 stops.

Is it worth paying Oswalt 15 million a season to be the third best pitcher on this team?

Oswalt is being paid ace money, but is not an ace. Is it worth it for the Phillies to risk holding on to Werth and hoping they can resign him in off season? Could they take the money they were going to pay Werth and turn it into fan favorite Lee? Will the season turn around if no move is made?

The answer to those questions are unclear. But one answer is clear: Oswalt is not what this team needs right now.